Southeast Asia faces a heightened threat of severe transboundary haze through the end of 2026, driven by a strong El Nino, increased biofuel demand, and economic pressures on fire prevention efforts, according to a new report by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
- Second time SIIA issues highest 'red' hazard warning since 2019.
- Economic factors and demand for biofuels may lead to risky land-clearing fires.
- ASEAN cooperation and strong climate resilience urged amid dry season stress test.
What happened
The Singapore Institute of International Affairs released its Haze Outlook 2026 report warning of a high risk for severe transboundary haze throughout Southeast Asia for the rest of the year. The report highlights August and September as the peak 'red alert' months for haze caused by forest and peat fires, primarily affecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. This marks only the second time the institute has issued such a severe warning, the first being in 2023 during a similar El Nino event.
Factors contributing to the elevated risk include a strong El Nino weather pattern bringing hotter and drier conditions, pressures on agricultural sectors due to fuel shortages and rising fertilizer prices, and increased demand for biofuels. These economic conditions, coupled with budget cuts in Indonesia’s fire management authorities, increase the likelihood of unsustainable land-clearing fires that generate harmful haze.
Why it feels good
While the outlook indicates a challenging haze season ahead, it also underscores the potential for regional cooperation and proactive measures to mitigate the impact. The Singapore Institute of International Affairs emphasizes that despite the severe forecast, much can still be done to safeguard health and environmental quality by maintaining sustainable land management practices and increasing resilience against climate pressures.
The formation of the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Transboundary Haze Pollution Control and continued satellite monitoring strengthen the region’s ability to respond swiftly and work collaboratively. This focus on partnership offers hope for reducing the haze impact and protecting community well-being in the months ahead.
What to enjoy or watch next
Residents and visitors can look forward to monitoring updates and haze risk advisories issued by local meteorological agencies supported by ASEAN’s resources. Staying informed will be key to adapting daily plans and ensuring health protections during the peak dry months.
Efforts to innovate in sustainable agriculture, fire prevention, and energy sectors will be important to watch as governments balance economic growth with environmental stewardship. How the region navigates these challenges will shape not just 2026 but future haze seasons as climate factors evolve.