This year, a strong or 'super' El Niño is shaping up to influence weather across the globe, potentially bringing significant changes from wetter winters to intensified droughts.
- El Niño causes warmer Pacific waters, altering global weather.
- A ‘super’ El Niño could bring stronger and more extreme weather effects.
- The cycle naturally alternates every few years between El Niño and La Niña phases.
What happened
El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by warmer surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, caused when trade winds weaken and allow warm water to move eastward. This ocean temperature shift disrupts usual weather patterns, often leading to milder winters in the northern U.S. and wetter conditions in southern states. This weather cycle is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which swings naturally between warm (El Niño), cold (La Niña), and neutral phases every two to seven years.
In the months leading up to mid-2026, ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions have aligned to favor the development of a strong El Niño. NOAA reports an 82% chance that El Niño will persist through the end of the year, and there is a notable chance — currently around 37% — that it will become a 'very strong' or 'super' event, a rarer intensification of the cycle that can deepen the impacts seen during typical El Niño years.
Why it feels good
A strong El Niño often alleviates some difficult climate stresses by shifting weather patterns in beneficial ways for certain regions. For example, areas prone to drought, such as parts of Texas and the Plains, may receive more rain and relief after dry periods. In other regions, milder winters can reduce heating costs and ease seasonal hardships.
Globally, these shifts remind us of the interconnectedness of Earth’s climate system and highlight the importance of scientific monitoring. Understanding these natural rhythms can help communities prepare for changes, manage water resources more effectively, and reduce the impact of extreme weather events before they happen.
What to enjoy or watch next
As the 2026 hurricane season begins, watching how a super El Niño develops will be key. Historically, these events influence hurricane activity, sometimes reducing Atlantic storms while increasing activity in the Pacific. Keeping an eye on forecasts can inform safety planning and outdoor activities for families and communities.
Beyond weather, El Niño impacts ecosystems and agriculture worldwide—boosting some crops due to increased rain while challenging others with heat or dryness. Staying informed through trusted sources like the Columbia Climate School and NOAA will provide timely updates, helping everyone appreciate the unfolding climate story and adapt in thoughtful ways.